NAR Economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun, Speaks on CRE

To a packed house at the NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings, NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun said you might not “feel the impact of the recovery — the hole was so deep, it might still feel like we’re in it.” During hisEconomic Issues & Commercial Business Trends presentation, Yun identified some bright spots — citing sales and leasing volumes for commercial real estate heading upward; but he continued to forecast some looming concerns and said financing remains a major stumbling block.

The commercial sector is expected to strengthen more over the next couple of years even as the end of commercial mortgage backed security (CMBS) activity is happening, but banks — particularly regional banks — are stepping in with portfolio loans. Interestingly, the big-four national banks — Wells Fargo, Citibank, Chase, and Bank of America — are in a far better position to make loans. They are not yet stepping up, but they are sitting on piles of money. “Because they’ve grown to the point where they’re too big to fail, they have a de facto implicit federal guarantee,” Yun said.

A big concern looming is inflation. It remains essentially low – about 2.9 percent – but inflation could rise and hit 5 percent by the end of the year and 6 percent in the early part of 2012, Yun predicted.

The top line on commercial sectors:

• Multifamily housing has been the standout over the last year. Vacancies hit historically normal levels last year at about 5-6 percent with solid rental rate growth. Look for 4 percent higher rents nationally by the end of this year – and more in some first-tier markets.
• Office market vacancy rates are expected to decline steadily, from
  • 16.5 percent in the first quarter of this year to 16 percent at the end of the year. Rental rate increases could turn positive for the first time in a while, too, to maybe 5 percent from a negative 2 percent.
  • The Industrial sector is expected to improve with vacancy rates projected to decline from 14.2 percent to about 12.9 percent at the end of the year and positive rental rate growth of about 2 percent this year.
  • Retail continues to struggle, with consumers still retrenching in their spending. Vacancy rates are only expected to improve marginally, from about 13 percent to just slightly better by the end of the year. Even so, the sector might see some improvement in rental rate growth, moving from a negative 1 percent to 1 percent in positive territory by the end of the year.

  For the latest Commercial Real Estate Outlook, go to:

  http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/05/commercial_improving

  Follow the NAR Economists’ Blog at:

  http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/

NAR’s Advocacy Efforts Benefit Commercial Practitioners

Advocacy efforts by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) recently won three key victories for commercial practitioners regarding lease accounting rules, refinancing commercial loans, and the repeal of the 1099 rule. For details on these victories, follow the link below for NAR Treasurer Bill Armstrong’s latest podcast. Hear more.

TCAR Position on REALTOR® Party Political Survival Initiative

After much discussion and consideration , the Triangle Commercial Association of REALTORS®, have decided as a group that we are unable to support the REALTOR® Party Political Survival Initiative. We believe any raise in the NAR portion of our dues is not acceptable due to the current economy and state of the real estate industry. It is also our position that an increase of almost 50% is excessive at any time, regardless of the political climate.

Past history of NAR dues increases have resulted in a loss of membership for our Association. We have approximately 550 members and believe we would experience a loss of no less than 15%, especially since 65 of our members are Institute Affiliates. We only receive $25 from this sector of our membership, and the financial implications would be substantial for our organization. As a local Association, we have been unable to increase our portion of the dues simply because the national and/or state associations continually raise their dues. In fact, TCAR has not increased dues since 2005.

Recently, TCAR has invested heavily in the startup of a Commercial Information Exchange Platform through e-Property Data, a company purchased by NAR. Fortunately, we are now having companies rejoin our association after years of seeing little use for their REALTOR® membership. This new dues increase would definitely create second thoughts for those returning companies and other larger firms as to whether to continue their membership. We believe this Initiative by NAR could have a profound impact on our bottom line.

As an alternative to this increase, we recommend consideration be given to using the $35 Image Campaign Assessment, (an increase that was originally only supposed to be for one year), to be funneled into the Political Survival Initiative. The $35 should be sufficient to accomplish the top goals of NAR until the economy substantially improves and more people are back to work.

REALTOR® Party Political Survival Initiative

By now you have all heard about the proposed Realtor® Party Political Survival Initiative. Like you, we have received numerous questions and comments about the initiative during the past weeks, and as you know there has been a lot of discussion on the blogs and various social media outlets.

To help provide you with the latest information and answer many of the questions that have been raised, the Leadership Team is holding a LIVE virtual Town Hall on Wednesday, April 13th, from 1:00 to 2:30 p.m. central time. Cathy Whatley, 2003 NAR President and Chair of the Political Survival Presidential Advisory Group, will be joining us to share her insights and clarify the value of this initiative to members.

The town hall is open to ALL REALTORS®. To participate simply use the link below. You’ll be directed to a registration page. Once registered, you will receive an email with a link to view the Town Hall on April 13th.

Register for the NAR Town Hall on Political Survival

We are encouraging informed debate on this initiative. To that end, I ask that you take some time to review the attached materials, which will help guide our discussion and the question and answer session on the 13th.

Download the updated Realtor® Party Political Survival Initiative materials

Thank you for all of your comments and questions. Many of you have contacted me personally. We appreciate the dialogue, and we are sharing all of the comments we receive.

We ask that you continue to leave your questions and feedback for us to review. Just go to the REALTOR® Action Center or email your questions to rppsi@realtor.org.

Thank you for engaging with us. We look forward to an informed discussion.

Sincerely,

Ron Phipps, ABR, CRS, GRI, GREEN, e-PRO
2011 President

National Association of REALTORS^®

TCAR & Tacquire Members to Have Access to Haves & Wants Database

Coming Soon!

The Triangle Commercial Association of Realtors® and Tacquire are pleased to announce the launch of a new tool to serve the Triangle commercial real estate community!

Launching March 23, 2011 for TCAR and Tacquire Members

As an added benefit of membership (at no additional charge), TCAR and Tacquire members will have access to a new Haves & Wants database, accessible via www.tcar.com.

Effective March 23, 2011, TCAR Members will have the ability to post Haves & Wants and will receive compiled e-mail feeds on a daily or weekly basis. “Haves” encompass sale and/or leasing opportunities that are currently available, and “Wants” include specific criteria for sale and/or leasing options brokers and their clients are seeking. Personalized profiles will allow members to set preferences regarding which posts they receive, and how often, streamlining the communication process! Effective April 1, 2011 members will have the choice of posting to the local community and/or to eProperty Data’s national Haves & Wants database.

Tacquire Members will enjoy the same features listed above, with the additional benefit of having the ability to search the Haves & Wants database and to set up hot sheets to be immediately notified of Haves & Wants meeting their specified criteria.

Launching April 1, 2011 for All Commercial Real Estate Professionals and Stakeholders

At no charge, commercial real estate professionals and stakeholders who are not members of TCAR or Tacquire will have the ability to set up a profile via TCAR and to post Haves & Wants, as well as to receive a weekly e-mail feed allowing them to communicate with TCAR/Tacquire’s more than 500 members.

Stay tuned for additional information regarding this valuable new tool!

LinkedIn

Want to discuss commercial real estate trends, post job openings, announce commercial real estate events and fundraising opportunities while managing the frequency of the emails you receive? Visit the Triangle Commercial Association of Realtors® LinkedIn discussion page and join the conversation!

Smedes York: TCAR's Commercial Realtor® Of the Year

On March 3rd, 2011 the Triangle Commercial Association of REALTORS® held it's annual Frontier Awards to celebrate the successes of the local commercial brokerage community of the past year. The final and most prestigious award is the Commercial REALTOR® of the Year and this year it given to Smedes York of York Properties.

To qualify for this award, nominees must represent the REALTORâ spirit. This means the recipient has the highest principles, dedication to the Code of Ethics of the Association and most importantly, has the principals of good real estate practice. This person must have served the association and have been a voice for commercial REALTORSâ on a local, state, and/or national platform. Also, the recipient must have business accomplishments in the industry that include good business conduct, service to clients, and creativity in marketing properties.

This year’s recipient has spent much of his career in real estate and construction but has served the community in a variety of ways. In the late 70s and early 80s, he served on the Raleigh City Council, was a Councilman, District E and served two terms as Mayor of the City of Raleigh, from 1979 through 1983.

Mr. York has served as the past chairman of the North Carolina Chamber, the N.C. State University Board of Trustees and the YMCA of the Triangle. Currently he serves on the Board of Directors for the Research Triangle Foundation, the North Carolina Amateur Sports and is a Trustee of the Urban Land Institute. As a ULI member, he was Chairman from 1989-1991 and has chaired many advisory service panel assignments including New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

He is in the Raleigh Hall of Fame, Needham Broughton Athletics Hall of Fame, Boys and Girls Club Hall of Fame, Raleigh Regional Association of Realtors Hall of Fame and the North Carolina Business Hall of Fame. He has received countess honors including the Watauga Medal from N. C. State University and the Distinguished Citizenship Award from the North Carolina Chamber.

Mr. York is pictured here with 2011 TCAR President Shane Bull receiving his award.

Local Commercial Realtor® First in State to Achieve National GreenValuation Specialist Designation

TCAR member Peter T. Chenery, President and CEO of Realty World/Investment Marketing recently earned the National GreenValuation Specialist Designation from the Porter Institute in Seattle, Washington. Pete is the first Realtor® in North Carolina to receive this designation after completing an in-depth two day course focusing on the evaluation and appraisal of green real estate.

This designation signifies Pete’s continued commitment to promoting the principles of green building and sustainability practices. Pete is a member of the US Green Building Council and is active in the Triangle Chapter, serving on their Education Committee and heading up their local speakers bureau. Pete is also a NAR GREEN Certified Instructor and recently developed a green course for commercial Realtors® which has been approved and will be taught in the first quarter of 2011.

A Commercial Realtor for over twenty years, Pete has extensive experience in the real estate, property management, and development industries. Pete has served and continues to serve on many local, state, and national boards, and has presented to numerous organizations within the field. Pete is available for speaking engagements, presentations, seminars, classes, and consulting.